Salta la Tasa de Desempleo en USA a 5,5 por ciento

Jobs: Unemployment Rate Jumps to 5.5%

by CalculatedRisk

From the BLS: Employment Situation Summary

The unemployment rate rose from 5.0 to 5.5 percent in May, and nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend down (-49,000), the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. In May, employment continued to fall in construction, manufacturing, retail trade, and temporary help services, while health care continued to add jobs.

The first graph shows the unemployment rate and the year-over-year change in employment vs. recessions.
Click on graph for larger image.

Unemployment jumped sharply and the rise in unemployment, from a cycle low of 4.4% to 5.5%, is a strong recession indicator.

Also concerning is the YoY change in employment is close to zero (the economy has added only 236 thousand jobs in the last year), also suggesting a recession.

Note the current recession indicated on the graph is "probable", and is not official.

The second graph shows residential construction employment.

Note: graph doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Residential construction employment declined 25,100 in May, and including revisions to previous months, is down 494 thousand, or about 14.3%, from the peak in February 2006. (compared to housing starts off over 50%).

This is the fifth straight month of job losses. This is a weak report, and the jump in unemployment strongly suggests a recession.

Información Adicional

• AnalysisBNP ParibasBrian FabbriJun 06, 2008US: Big Jump in Unemployment Rate to 5.5%
• AnalysisBMO Capital MarketsSal GuatieriJun 06, 2008U.S. Employment Sags, Joblessness Soars
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• AnalysisWall Steet JournalJun 06, 2008‘Teen Angst’ or Playing ‘Catch-Up’ in Jobless Rate?
• AnalysisBureau of Labor StatisticsJun 06, 2008U.S. Employment Situation Summary May 2008: Nonfarm payroll down 49,000; unemployment rate rises to 5.5%
• AnalysisNomura Economics ResearchDavid H. ReslerJun 05, 2008Jobless Claims Fall to Seven-Week Low
• BlogsThe Big Picture Barry RitholtzMay 22, 2008Continuing Unemployment Insurance Claims Say "Recession"
• AnalysisADPJun 03, 2008The U.S. ADP National Employment Report: May 2008
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• AnalysisBureau of Labor StatisticsMay 21, 2008Business Employment Dynamics Summary: Q3 2007
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• OpinionsBrookings InstitutionRebecca M. BlankApr 04, 2008What the Unemployment Rate Signals on the Economy
• OpinionsFinancial TimesMay 02, 2008Lex: US jobs surprise
• OpinionsThoughts from the FrontlineJohn MauldinMay 02, 2008Honey, I Blew up the Employment Numbers