El Comercio exterior es un mecanismo básico para transmitir el ciclo económico; así, si ocurre una recesión en un país específico , como consecuencia, se reducen las compras que éste hace en otros países del mundo. Al suceder esto , dependiendo de la importancia del sector externo y de la importancia que pudiera tener USA para el país considerado, se produce también un descenso en el ritmo de crecimiento en otros países del mundo. Por esta razón, la noticia publicada el día de hoy en el New Tork Times y que adjuntamos a continuación puede tener una relevancia crucial para todos los países que mantienen estrechas relaciones comerciales con Estados Unidos. Obviamente, este es el caso del Perú, aunque también sería bueno recordar que tan importantes como la vincualción directa podría ser una vinculación indirecta. En efecto, la reducción en la demanda estadounidense , en el corto plazo, puede afectar a los países de Asia, México y Canadá, y, así reducir sus tasas de crecimiento y así reducir las compras que los principales socios comerciales de Estados Unidos hacen a otros países. Así, aunque un país no venda directamente a Estados Unidos puede puede también registrar una mella en su dinamismo económico, sea por la caída que puede registrarse en las ventas , sea porque por la reducción de las cotizaciones internacionales de sus principales países de exportación. No es necesario decir que la economía peruana también está sujeta a este tipo de riesgo e incluso podríamos afirmar que esta vinculación indirecta podría ser más importante que la vinculación comercial directa.
The rate of increase in imports has begun to decline, and is now at its lowest level since 2002, when the economy was only slowly emerging from a recession. At the same time, export growth has remained strong, thanks to a buoyant world economy and a weaker dollar that has made American goods seem cheaper to overseas buyers.
From August through October, the most recently reported three months, the quantity of American imports, adjusted for inflation, was up just 1.1 percent from the same period of 2006. Over the same period, the volume of exports was up by 9.6 percent.
As can be seen from the accompanying chart, the last time import volumes declined was in 2001 and 2002, which was also the most recent recession. The time before that, in 1990 and 1991, was another recession. In each of those cases, the figures fell into negative territory only after the recessions began.
After the 2001 recession ended, imports rose even faster than exports, leading to a rapid rise in the American trade deficit. But import growth peaked in August 2004 and has come down significantly since then.
Whether by coincidence or not, that was one month after the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index peaked. Americans who used their homes as piggy banks to finance consumption were less able to do so once home prices began to slip.
Inflation-adjusted prices do not completely describe trade reality, of course, since it is nominal dollars that are spent. But the rate of growth in actual spending on imports was up just 5.1 percent from a year before. Reflecting soaring oil prices, that gain was well above the rates of gain earlier this year, but still far below the double-digit gains in most of 2005 and 2006.
A major reason for the improved trade position — and for the economic woes in Detroit — is the weak car market. The trade deficit in motor vehicles, including parts, was lower over the last 12 months than at any time in the last four years. Exports of American cars and parts actually rose 12 percent in the 12 months through October, compared with the 12 months before that, while imports fell by 1.5 percent. Imports declined from every major auto-exporting country, except Mexico, where they rose 4 percent.
Will Americans step up their purchases of imports once the economy improves and home prices start to recover? They certainly did after every previous slowdown.
Fuente de la Noticia: New York Times
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